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Economic Expertise
Stocks Turn Sloppy and Are Likely to Continue to Consolidate/Correct
April 23, 2024
Stocks were on a roller coaster most of the week (S&P 500 -3.1%, Dow Jones +0% and NASDAQ -5.5%). Dominating the discussion were the geopolitical volatility in the Middle East and hawkish Fed rate conversation....
Read MoreLeadership Key for Market Call
April 16, 2024
The breakout in rates, combined with the bid to USD, strength from Oil, and the persistence from Gold, all conspired as motivation to tactically raise our guard over recent weeks....
Read MoreIs the Fed Tight, Or Not?
April 9, 2024
In the waning seconds of one of the most watched women’s college basketball games ever, a foul was called. The University of Connecticut was playing the University of Iowa in the semi-finals of the women’s NCAA championship tournament....
Read MoreNo Recession So Far
April 2, 2024
Why has recession not happened? After all, the Fed raised rates the most and fastest in modern history, the yield curve inverted, and money growth turned negative. That severely curtailed bank lending, as it normally does....
Read MoreDouble-Digit Earnings Growth and Multiple Fed Rate Cuts Seem Incompatible
March 27, 2024
Equities posted their best weekly performance this year (S&P 500 +2.31%). The rally was sparked by dovish takeaways from last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting....
Read MoreBecoming More Concerned
March 19, 2024
Stocks fell last week (S&P 500 -0.1%) and bonds fell (the 10-year yield was up more than 20 bp) due primarily to a higher-than-expected CPI. Best sectors were energy (+3.8%) and materials (+1.6%); worst sectors were real estate (-...
Read MoreNo Rate Cuts for You!!!
March 6, 2024
Why is the economy so strong? This seems to defy the normal and needed market cycles. The market came into 2023 expecting a recession, but one was nowhere to be found. The market went into 2024 expecting six Fed rate cuts....
Read MoreWill 2024 Be Like 1995, Or 1967?
February 27, 2024
We’ve had 3 soft landings -- 1967, 1985, & 1995 -- and many investors believe 2024 will be added to that list. In today’s Narrative, we compare this cycle to 1995 and 1967, drawing some cautionary conclusions....
Read MoreJanuary Stagflation
February 21, 2024
A key economic mistake people make is thinking growth leads to inflation. One reason they do that is because inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When money is too easy, first growth rises,...
Read MoreHard Landing → Soft Landing → No Landing → Taking Off?
February 13, 2024
Stocks advanced again last week (S&P 500+1.4%) as the S&P 500 closed above 5,000 for the first time and small stocks beat big ones for the fifth time in the past seven weeks. Earnings exceeded expectations and treasury yields increased....
Read MoreLatest Comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman
February 6, 2024
Most all his comments are speculative (Like Transitory Inflation was at the time), except the one on our national debt. Is anyone in DC listening? Coming off a sizzling jobs report, which showed non-...
Read MoreThe Power of Compounding and Reading the Tea Leaves
January 30, 2024
Albert Einstein once said the most powerful force in the universe is compounding. Compounding can be easily explained, but most people do not understand It and why it matters. The basis of compounding is that as forces become larger,...
Read MoreSlower Growth in Q4, But No Recession
January 24, 2024
The economy slowed substantially in the last quarter of 2023 from the rapid pace of the third quarter, but, as we explain below, still expanded at a moderate rate. Some will take this week’s Real GDP report to confirm their prior view the...
Read MoreBudgets and Governing
January 17, 2024
The leaders of the House and Senate have come up with a new budget deal, and many people aren’t happy. It still needs passing by January 19th, or else the government, evidently, may shutdown. We doubt that this will happen,...
Read MoreGoldilocks Remains a Fairytale
January 9, 2024
Each year we like to check out our friend Bob Doll's annual predictions. He is right more than wrong, but last year's markets left Bob's predictions with an unusually mixed bag. Let’s see what Bob thinks is in store for 2024: The main focal...
Read More‘Everyone Got Burned’: Wall Street Missed the Great Stock Rally of 2023
January 3, 2024
Across Wall Street, on equities desks and bond desks, at giant firms and niche outfits, the mood was glum. It was the end of 2022 and everyone, it seemed, was game planning for the recession they were convinced was coming. Over at Morgan Stanley,...
Read MoreSummary of Bob's 10 Predictions for 2023
December 20, 2023
2023 certainly was a challenging year for investors. Multiple expansion despite flattish earnings confounded most investors even as a much-anticipated recession did not materialize. Investors enjoyed falling long-...
Read MoreFed Declares Mission Accomplished
December 14, 2023
The Federal Reserve declared victory today, projecting a soft landing as its base case in the years ahead, with more cuts in short-term rates, and with inflation gradually getting back to its 2.0% goal without a recession. Unfortunately,...
Read MoreFor All The Talk Of Rate Cuts, Little Talk Of Halting Balance Sheet Runoff
December 12, 2023
Lately, there has been much discussion about how soon the Fed will have to cut rates as many believe they are too restrictive. While we are cautious about the ultimate message rates have for equities,...
Read MoreMarkets are Rallying into Year's End, but is the Rally Warranted?
December 5, 2023
The S&P 500 was up (+0.8%) for the fifth week in a row. Small cap stocks again powered higher (Russell 2000 +0.1%). Treasuries had a strong week with the ten-year yield falling 25 basis points....
Read MoreCybersecurity Hints & Tips: Holiday and Seasonal Scams
December 4, 2023
With the ever-growing popularity of online shopping and online communications, you should always have your guard up in the cyberworld. Criminals will use any situation to their advantage–especially when it comes to annual holidays....
Read MoreAnnual Charitable Giving this Holiday Season
December 4, 2023
Don’t forget to give to Charity this Holiday Season! As the end of the year and the holiday season approaches, we will all see an uptick in charitable solicitations arriving in our mailboxes and by email....
Read MoreShort Essay that Summarizes Current Economic and Investment Outlook
November 28, 2023
In this short essay, we highlight some of the most important drivers for the economic and investment outlook. The essay is not exhaustive on any subject, nor does it touch on the long list of subjects impacting the investment environment....
Read MoreHas the Santa Clause Rally Already Started?
November 21, 2023
Stocks advanced for a third week in a row (S&P 500 +2.2%). Small stocks (Russell 2000) were up 5.45%. Disinflation optimism and weaker labor data supported peak Fed and soft-landing narratives....
Read MoreMagnificent 7 Continues to Dominate Market & Earnings Past and Present
November 14, 2023
Several weeks ago, we decided to reconstruct the S&P 500 by excluding the Magnificent 7 stocks from the sectors in which they normally reside and by creating a new separate sector for them....
Read MoreThe Pause (In the Downtrend) That Refreshes
November 9, 2023
After reaching correction territory on Monday, stocks advanced each day with the S&P 500 (+5.9%) posting its best week in a year. Small stocks (Russell 2000 +7.6%) had their best week in two and a half years. Ten-...
Read MoreFed Pause... For Now
November 2, 2023
The Fed kept rates unchanged at today’s meeting, but whether they are done with rate hikes or simply at a pause is yet to be determined. Today’s Fed statement itself was mostly a copy/paste of September,...
Read MoreStocks Break Below the Recent Trading Range: Stocks and Bonds are Both Oversold
October 30, 2023
Equities were lower again last week as the S&P 500 (-2.5%) fell for the second straight week and finished the week at the lowest levels since April. NASDAQ is now 12% below the recent July peak. Treasuries yields fell on the week,...
Read MoreInteresting List of Lists from our Research Provider
October 24, 2023
WHY WE BELIEVE LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES ARE RISING Reversion to the Mean: typical spread between 10-year & inflation is 200 bps Greater Sense Inflation is Structural: Slowing Globalization, Deficit Spending,...
Read MoreMarket Ramifications from the Middle East War
October 18, 2023
This brief note is not meant to cover all the events of recent days or exhaust the potential economic and market implications of the war in the Middle East. Our goal is to provide you insight into our view of the potential impacts of these events...
Read MoreGrowing Deficits Will Weigh on Growth
October 17, 2023
At the end of October, we will get our first look at real GDP growth for the third quarter, and it looks like it was solid. We’ll have a more exact estimate a week from now– after this week’s reports on retail sales, industrial production,...
Read MoreCrisis Management Government Leads to No Good
October 10, 2023
Back in 2008, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson, using fear of financial collapse, convinced President Bush and Congress to 1) pass a $700 billion bailout of banks (called TARP) and 2) allow the Federal Reserve to pay banks interest on reserves at the...
Read MoreTurmoil in Washington "A House Without a Rudder"
October 4, 2023
Yesterday House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was voted down as House Majority leader by just a few members of his own party and most all members of the opposing party. There are no more Norms in Washington but does the end justify the means....
Read MoreOctober Weakness Before the Year-End Run?
October 3, 2023
While September had been a bit sloppy, will further weakness in October weigh on investor sentiment before the seasonally strong period begins? As shown by the S&P 500 index seasonality chart below,...
Read MoreDon't Fall for the Q3 Head-Fake
September 26, 2023
We have plenty of data reports to go, but, so far, the third quarter is shaping up to be a strong one for the US economy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is tracking a Real GDP growth rate of 4.9% for Q3,...
Read MoreHigher Rates & a Shutdown on the Menu
September 19, 2023
The University of Colorado Buffaloes are undefeated and suck up a lot of oxygen in the college football world. After just three games as the new head coach, Deion Sanders was interviewed by 60 Minutes. For now,...
Read MoreBonds Hold the Key to the Direction of Stocks in the Near Term
September 12, 2023
Stocks fell last week (S&P 500 -1.3%) as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell below their 50-day moving averages. The market’s mood was primarily defensive with investors focused on the renewed back up in interest rates, dollar strength,...
Read MoreFiscal Madness
September 6, 2023
Back in the 1980s, President Reagan took enormous political heat (Sam Donaldson comes to mind) for being fiscally irresponsible. His offense? Presiding over a budget deficit that peaked at 5.9% of GDP in Fiscal Year 1983. But at least Reagan had...
Read MoreA recession is coming… A RECESSION IS COMING…
August 29, 2023
Since the beginning of 2022, the media has regularly warned a recession is coming. As we suggested previously, if a recession did occur, it would be the most well forecasted recession ever on record. Something else has indeed happened....
Read MoreSchwab Market Perspective: On the Line
August 22, 2023
Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call. We've believed all year that the economy has been undergoing a series of "rolling recessions" affecting various industries and sectors....
Read MoreP/E's Have Peaked - Now It's Up to Earnings
August 15, 2023
Stocks fell again last week (S&P 500 -0.3%) with big tech hit hardest. Inflation remains the primary concern despite a good CPI report on Wednesday – PPI report on Friday was less good....
Read MoreSecond Quarter Earnings Season Better than Expected
August 8, 2023
2Q Earnings Season 84% Complete With the majority of earnings season complete, the overall picture is one of better-than-expected earnings and sales. Earnings growth for the quarter is expected to decline -...
Read MoreFed Raised Rates Again
July 27, 2023
Anyone hoping for excitement from today’s Fed statement was severely disappointed. As expected, the federal funds rate was lifted 25 basis points (bps) from a range of 5.25 to 5.50%. With the exception of the rate hike and slight wording changes...
Read MoreStill Growing
July 25, 2023
No one should be popping champagne when they see Thursday’s GDP report. The good news is that it won’t be negative. The bad news is that even if it hits our estimate of 2.1% this is a far cry from the robust growth of the economic expansions in...
Read MoreBetter Inflation News, But...
July 18, 2023
U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +2.4%) more than erasing the prior week’s declines. The small-cap R2000 increased 3.6%. The main focus for the week was the June CPI report,...
Read MoreMarket Gains this Year Entirely Drive by Multiple Expansion
July 11, 2023
Expectations for 2024 S&P 500 operating earnings have fallen from $253 at the start of the year to $246 today. While this is only a modest decline, it means that the S&P 500’s entire +14.6% price gain year-to-...
Read MoreThe High Wire Act Continues
June 27, 2023
U.S. equities fell last week (S&P 500 -1.4%) as the S&P 500 broke a five-week streak and the NASDAQ an eight-week streak of gains. Higher-for-longer Fed policy remains a key piece of the bearish narrative....
Read MoreIs the Recession Threat Dead?
June 21, 2023
Lately, it’s been easy to see the optimism. As of the Friday close, the S&P 500 is up 15% so far this year (not including dividends) and up 23% (again, without dividends) versus the lowest bear-...
Read MoreThe Fed is All Mixed Up
June 15, 2023
If the Federal Reserve were paying close attention to the money supply, it would know that monetary policy is now tight. Through April, the narrow M1 measure of money has fallen for thirteen straight months....
Read MoreMarket Returns and Full Employment
June 13, 2023
Historically, the movement in stock prices has had a stronger relationship with inflation and long-term interest rates than it has with the unemployment rate. Still, we are left with a simple question – can a new and durable economic cycle and...
Read MoreThe Beat (Narrower and Narrower) Goes On!
May 31, 2023
U.S. equities were mixed last week, with the S&P 500 slightly higher (+0.3%) though NASDAQ posted its second straight week up at least 2.5%, largely driven by AI optimism. Analysts have continued to warn of narrow breadth....
Read MoreRisk / Reward Not Favorable
May 23, 2023
Stocks were higher last week (S&P 500 +1.6%), lead once again by the tech-heavy NASDAQ (+3.0%). YTD NASDAQ is +20.9%, S&P 500 +9.7% and DJIA +0.8%. The S&P 500 broke above 4200 for the first time since last August....
Read MoreAnswers to Strategas Research's Frequently Asked Client Questions
May 16, 2023
What follows are some simple answers to the questions Strategas research is receiving most frequently from their clients these days. We are happy to hop on a call to discuss them in greater detail should you have further questions about our...
Read MoreWeekend Reading - Bank Problems Aren't Over, But It's Not 2008
May 15, 2023
Yes, we have banking problems. No, this is not 2008. It’s much more like the 1970s Savings & Loan problems. In other words, we do not have credit problems today, we have duration (asset-liability) problems....
Read More2023 Has Been Full of Surprises but Fundamentals Should Prevail
May 9, 2023
I came across an interesting article that discusses the disjointed market we have seen thus far in 2023. We believe fundamentals will drive this market as we progress through the year and believe our portfolios are positioned to reduce volatility...
Read MoreAll Eyes on the Fed this Week
May 2, 2023
For nine of the last fifteen years, few people thought about the Fed. Sure, we discussed QT and QE, but the Federal Reserve held interest rates at zero year after year. In 2017 and 2018, they lifted rates, and it was all anyone talked about....
Read MoreNew Division Announcement | Fortem Insurance
May 1, 2023
We would like to announce exciting news. For several years, our clients have been asking to have us deliver additional added services to continue with the Ultimate Client Experience they are accustomed to....
Read MoreQ1 2023 Earnings Update
April 25, 2023
1Q Earnings Marginally Ahead Of Initial Estimates After the second week of earnings reports, growth rates continue to improve marginally compared to initial estimates and now are expected to decline -4.7%, a slight improvement from last week’s -...
Read More“Shareholder's Equity” Declines to All-Time Low Profits Growth/Margins Now a Liability
April 18, 2023
In an effort to be dispassionate about our market forecast, we have categorized 16 basic building blocks of market strength as either assets or liabilities on a regular basis since 2002....
Read MoreThe U.S. Economy Does Not Appear to Be in Recession Now but Seems to Be Heading That Way...
April 11, 2023
Some cracks are appearing in the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims with revisions were 228,000 last week. The ISM mfg & svc indices both fell notably in March. The Fed’s H.8 release showed bank loans declining at the end of March....
Read MoreAre We in the Eye of a Hurricane?
April 4, 2023
U.S. equities were higher for the third week in a row (S&P 500 +3.5%). Headlines were sparse, with lower volatility around banks. Flows to money market accounts eased from the prior two weeks....
Read MoreThe Fed Waffles
March 29, 2023
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%....
Read MoreRegional Banks are on Shaky Ground. Are the Big Banks Next?
March 27, 2023
Has the Bank Crisis Really Been Solved? After conversing with our Chief Economist Don Rissmiller yesterday about the status of the banking system, the question came up about whether the risk of deposit flight still remains....
Read MoreThe Banking Crisis
March 15, 2023
Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com ...
Read MoreSIVB Bank Update
March 14, 2023
As we are sure you have seen, the FDIC stepped in to take over Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) over the weekend. First and foremost, we want to assure that your assets at Charles Schwab are safe and secure. To begin,...
Read MoreInflation Fighting, Recession Uncertainty, and Now, Credit Crunch Concerns
March 14, 2023
Equities had their worst week since September (S&P 500 -4.6%). All sectors were down with banks the biggest decliners due to the SIVB financial failure. Treasuries rallied across the curve, with two-year yields recording their largest two-...
Read MoreThe Choppiness Continues
March 8, 2023
U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +1.9%) after three weeks of declines. Markets continued to reprice upward Fed rate expectations. Best sectors were materials (+4.0%), communication services (+3.3%) and industrials (+3.3%);...
Read More1st Annual Coachella Valley Giving Day
March 2, 2023
Dear Clients, Today is the 1st Annual Coachella Valley Giving Day. CV Giving Day brings the region together as one community, raising money and awareness for local nonprofits in the Coachella Valley. Fortem Financial is a long-...
Read MoreSeven Things I Didn't Know At the Start of the Year
February 28, 2023
"There are two types of economists," said famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith, "those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know." This, along with movie producer William Goldman's assertion that "nobody knows anything" are two...
Read More2% Inflation? Very Unlikely
February 22, 2023
U.S. equities were mixed last week (S&P 500 -0.2%) with some early week strength surrendered in multiple risk-off sessions impacted by economic data and hawkish Fed commentary. Fed peak rate expectations moved higher on a stronger than expected...
Read MoreOffice Hours in Observance of Presidents' Day
February 17, 2023
In observance of Presidents' Day, the New York Stock Exchange and bond markets are closed on Monday, February 20, 2023. Our office will be closing at 1:00PM PST on Friday, February 17, 2023, and will reopen on Tuesday, February 21, 2023,...
Read MoreSome Caution is Warranted
February 13, 2023
U.S. equities closed lower last week as the S&P 500 (-1.1%) fell for the first time in three weeks and Nasdaq (-2.4%) in six weeks. WTI crude was up 8.6%, the best week since early October....
Read MoreStaying Cautious but It's Getting Tougher
February 7, 2023
We first became cautious on future market returns last March and have remained so ever since. Despite some countertrend rallies after the market peaked at 4,797 on January 3, 2022, we continue to believe that the inversion of the yield curve,...
Read MoreFed Raises Interest Rates Again. Slowing, Not Stopping.
February 2, 2023
The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done. As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points (bp) today, slowing from the 50bp hike in December, and the 75bp hikes at the four meetings before that....
Read MoreInflation and Earnings Estimates Continue to Decline
January 31, 2023
U.S. equities finished higher last week (S&P 500 +2.5%), closing above the 4000 level for the first time since early December. The path of least resistance remains higher even though earnings season continued to undershoot expectations....
Read MoreLast Year's Worst Stocks Performing the Best So Far this Year
January 27, 2023
Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Global Investments Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com Latest News Market Recovery Hinges on Quick Drop in Inflation Rate Stocks and bonds have been buoyed by expectations...
Read MoreMarkets Are Up for the Year But Will It Continue?
January 18, 2023
Stocks closed higher last week (S&P 500 +2.7%) at their highest level in a month. The main macro tailwinds include the decline in inflation (CPI) and improved consumer sentiment. Best sectors were consumer discretionary (+5.8%) and technology...
Read MoreIRS Gives Drenched Californians an Extra Month to File Tax Returns
January 16, 2023
The Internal Revenue Service offered a lifeboat of sorts Tuesday to California residents and businesses floundering in the atmospheric river: More time to pay their income taxes. The agency announced that taxpayers in any county covered by a...
Read MoreThe Market is Treating Friday's Employment Report Like It's Goldilocks
January 10, 2023
Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead,...
Read MoreThe Road Ahead for 2023
January 4, 2023
Is a U.S. recession or economic recovery in store for 2023? Risk: With inflation peaking at 9.1% in June, a recession is now the No. 1 economic concern going into 2023. When businesses make less money due to lower consumer spending (triggered...
Read MoreStill Unprecedented
December 28, 2022
What a difference a year makes! One year ago the Federal Reserve was forecasting that real GDP would grow a strong 4.0% in 2022, that PCE prices would be up a relatively moderate 2.6%,...
Read MoreNo gift giving to scammers this Holiday Season
December 23, 2022
Be Aware This Holiday Season. Many of us spend the holidays relaxing and sharing in goodwill with friends and family. But some bad actors use the holidays to take advantage of people’s generous spirits....
Read MoreBob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2022 Revisited
December 21, 2022
We have been following one of our favorite portfolio managers for more than 20 years. Bob Doll was the chief investment officer and lead portfolio manager for Merrill Lynch asset management when we started in the business back in 1998....
Read MoreAn Investor's Letter to Santa Clause - The Substance of Things Hoped For
December 20, 2022
Dear Santa, We were largely good investors this year, remembering always and everywhere one of the cardinal rules of investing – “Don’t fight the Fed” either when it is easing or most especially when it’s tightening....
Read MoreInterest Rates Are Going Higher Than Expected
December 16, 2022
The Fed downshifted to smaller rate hikes but isn’t close to done. In contrast to the 75 basis point rate hikes at each of the last four meetings, the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates by only 50 bps YESTERDAY, as expected. However,...
Read MoreEnergy Reliability & Security to Remain a Major Investment Theme in 2023
December 13, 2022
In January 2020 President Biden entered office and declared he was going to change the energy policy in America at a record pace. We were going green baby and Biden was the man to take us there in record time....
Read MoreAnnual Gifting
December 9, 2022
Below we have outlined a list of reminders as you consider your options for Annual Gifting. Don't Forget to Give to Charity As the end of the year and the holiday season approach,...
Read MoreEconomic Update
December 6, 2022
The U.S. economy does not appear to be in a recession right now. But risks continue to skew to the downside, in our opinion. We believe there’s a 75% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 2 years. The employment situation continues to show a...
Read MoreBEWARE OF FALSE PIVOTS
November 29, 2022
Among the sad legacies of the prolonged use of quantitative easing to wash away the sins of the world is the difficulty among investors, businessmen, and labor alike to think of business cycles as anything other than “V-shaped” affairs....
Read MoreFourth Quarter Rally Continues
November 22, 2022
U.S. equities fell last week (S&P 500 -0.6%) after the prior week’s strong gains. The equity decline was a function of hawkish Fed speak and further yield curve inversion. Best sectors were consumer staples (+1.7%) and healthcare (+1.0%);...
Read MoreA Rally in Stocks and Bonds - Is it Sustainable?
November 15, 2022
U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +5.9%) more than erasing the prior week’s declines. A major factor in the upside was an outsized Thursday rally in the wake of a softer-than-expected report for October CPI....
Read MoreEarnings Growth Continues To Roll Over
November 9, 2022
With earnings season more than 80% complete, EPS growth is expected to be 4.3% which is just below expectations at the beginning of the reporting season. On sector basis the data was mixed with 7 of the 11 sectors exceeding initial growth estimates...
Read MoreReprieve In Bonds Allow Stocks To Rise
November 2, 2022
Equities were higher for the second straight week (S&P 500 +4.0%). Despite multiple megacap earnings disappointments, the market remained resilient. The market is embracing the idea that the Fed could soon begin to slow the pace of tightening....
Read MoreQ3 Earnings Reports Coming in Better than Feared
October 25, 2022
Stocks rose last week (S&P 500 +4.7%) after falling to a 2.5 year low the week before. The increase was attributable to technical and sentiment reasons, but also Q3 earnings reports coming in less bad than feared....
Read MoreAS Q.E. moves to Q.T., Markets Resume Control
October 18, 2022
The nearly 14 years of financial repression that allowed politicians to escape the economic consequences of their actions without fear of retribution from the frontier justice of free markets appears to be ending. The ever-...
Read MoreThe Roller Coaster Ride In Both Directions Continues
October 12, 2022
Equities closed higher (S&P 500 +1.6%) in a roller-coaster week, snapping a three-week losing streak. Stocks bounced early in the week on oversold conditions and negative sentiment. There was also a renewed pickup in policy pivot hopes....
Read MoreCentral Banks Seem Determined To Slay Inflation (and Likely Cause a Recession)
October 4, 2022
Stocks and bonds both declined for the third consecutive quarter, the longest streak in almost 50 years. The S&P 500 fell 5.3%, ten-year Treasury yields rose 85bps and two-year yields rose 130bps resulting in the most inverted yield curve in...
Read MoreWeekend Reading
October 3, 2022
Stocks And Bonds On Pace For 3rd Consecutive Negative Quarter Of the 187 quarters since 1976, there has never been a period that has seen negative quarterly returns for both stocks and bonds three quarters in a row....
Read MoreWe are in a Bear Market and have invested appropriately for our clients
September 28, 2022
We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede. At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 666....
Read MoreMIDTERMS & MARKETS
September 20, 2022
Midterm election years have historically been the most volatile year for stocks in the four-year presidential cycle. The average intra-year decline for the S&P 500 in a midterm election year is 19 percent, much higher than the 12-...
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