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Economic Expertise
The Fed Waffles
March 29, 2023
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%....
Read MoreRegional Banks are on Shaky Ground. Are the Big Banks Next?
March 27, 2023
Has the Bank Crisis Really Been Solved? After conversing with our Chief Economist Don Rissmiller yesterday about the status of the banking system, the question came up about whether the risk of deposit flight still remains....
Read MoreThe Banking Crisis
March 15, 2023
Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com ...
Read MoreSIVB Bank Update
March 14, 2023
As we are sure you have seen, the FDIC stepped in to take over Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) over the weekend. First and foremost, we want to assure that your assets at Charles Schwab are safe and secure. To begin,...
Read MoreInflation Fighting, Recession Uncertainty, and Now, Credit Crunch Concerns
March 14, 2023
Equities had their worst week since September (S&P 500 -4.6%). All sectors were down with banks the biggest decliners due to the SIVB financial failure. Treasuries rallied across the curve, with two-year yields recording their largest two-...
Read MoreThe Choppiness Continues
March 8, 2023
U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +1.9%) after three weeks of declines. Markets continued to reprice upward Fed rate expectations. Best sectors were materials (+4.0%), communication services (+3.3%) and industrials (+3.3%);...
Read More1st Annual Coachella Valley Giving Day
March 2, 2023
Dear Clients, Today is the 1st Annual Coachella Valley Giving Day. CV Giving Day brings the region together as one community, raising money and awareness for local nonprofits in the Coachella Valley. Fortem Financial is a long-...
Read MoreSeven Things I Didn't Know At the Start of the Year
February 28, 2023
"There are two types of economists," said famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith, "those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know." This, along with movie producer William Goldman's assertion that "nobody knows anything" are two...
Read More2% Inflation? Very Unlikely
February 22, 2023
U.S. equities were mixed last week (S&P 500 -0.2%) with some early week strength surrendered in multiple risk-off sessions impacted by economic data and hawkish Fed commentary. Fed peak rate expectations moved higher on a stronger than expected...
Read MoreOffice Hours in Observance of Presidents' Day
February 17, 2023
In observance of Presidents' Day, the New York Stock Exchange and bond markets are closed on Monday, February 20, 2023. Our office will be closing at 1:00PM PST on Friday, February 17, 2023, and will reopen on Tuesday, February 21, 2023,...
Read MoreSome Caution is Warranted
February 13, 2023
U.S. equities closed lower last week as the S&P 500 (-1.1%) fell for the first time in three weeks and Nasdaq (-2.4%) in six weeks. WTI crude was up 8.6%, the best week since early October....
Read MoreStaying Cautious but It's Getting Tougher
February 7, 2023
We first became cautious on future market returns last March and have remained so ever since. Despite some countertrend rallies after the market peaked at 4,797 on January 3, 2022, we continue to believe that the inversion of the yield curve,...
Read MoreFed Raises Interest Rates Again. Slowing, Not Stopping.
February 2, 2023
The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done. As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points (bp) today, slowing from the 50bp hike in December, and the 75bp hikes at the four meetings before that....
Read MoreInflation and Earnings Estimates Continue to Decline
January 31, 2023
U.S. equities finished higher last week (S&P 500 +2.5%), closing above the 4000 level for the first time since early December. The path of least resistance remains higher even though earnings season continued to undershoot expectations....
Read MoreLast Year's Worst Stocks Performing the Best So Far this Year
January 27, 2023
Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Global Investments Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com Latest News Market Recovery Hinges on Quick Drop in Inflation Rate Stocks and bonds have been buoyed by expectations...
Read MoreMarkets Are Up for the Year But Will It Continue?
January 18, 2023
Stocks closed higher last week (S&P 500 +2.7%) at their highest level in a month. The main macro tailwinds include the decline in inflation (CPI) and improved consumer sentiment. Best sectors were consumer discretionary (+5.8%) and technology...
Read MoreIRS Gives Drenched Californians an Extra Month to File Tax Returns
January 16, 2023
The Internal Revenue Service offered a lifeboat of sorts Tuesday to California residents and businesses floundering in the atmospheric river: More time to pay their income taxes. The agency announced that taxpayers in any county covered by a...
Read MoreThe Market is Treating Friday's Employment Report Like It's Goldilocks
January 10, 2023
Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead,...
Read MoreThe Road Ahead for 2023
January 4, 2023
Is a U.S. recession or economic recovery in store for 2023? Risk: With inflation peaking at 9.1% in June, a recession is now the No. 1 economic concern going into 2023. When businesses make less money due to lower consumer spending (triggered...
Read MoreStill Unprecedented
December 28, 2022
What a difference a year makes! One year ago the Federal Reserve was forecasting that real GDP would grow a strong 4.0% in 2022, that PCE prices would be up a relatively moderate 2.6%,...
Read MoreNo gift giving to scammers this Holiday Season
December 23, 2022
Be Aware This Holiday Season. Many of us spend the holidays relaxing and sharing in goodwill with friends and family. But some bad actors use the holidays to take advantage of people’s generous spirits....
Read MoreBob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2022 Revisited
December 21, 2022
We have been following one of our favorite portfolio managers for more than 20 years. Bob Doll was the chief investment officer and lead portfolio manager for Merrill Lynch asset management when we started in the business back in 1998....
Read MoreAn Investor's Letter to Santa Clause - The Substance of Things Hoped For
December 20, 2022
Dear Santa, We were largely good investors this year, remembering always and everywhere one of the cardinal rules of investing – “Don’t fight the Fed” either when it is easing or most especially when it’s tightening....
Read MoreInterest Rates Are Going Higher Than Expected
December 16, 2022
The Fed downshifted to smaller rate hikes but isn’t close to done. In contrast to the 75 basis point rate hikes at each of the last four meetings, the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates by only 50 bps YESTERDAY, as expected. However,...
Read MoreEnergy Reliability & Security to Remain a Major Investment Theme in 2023
December 13, 2022
In January 2020 President Biden entered office and declared he was going to change the energy policy in America at a record pace. We were going green baby and Biden was the man to take us there in record time....
Read MoreAnnual Gifting
December 9, 2022
Below we have outlined a list of reminders as you consider your options for Annual Gifting. Don't Forget to Give to Charity As the end of the year and the holiday season approach,...
Read MoreEconomic Update
December 6, 2022
The U.S. economy does not appear to be in a recession right now. But risks continue to skew to the downside, in our opinion. We believe there’s a 75% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 2 years. The employment situation continues to show a...
Read MoreBEWARE OF FALSE PIVOTS
November 29, 2022
Among the sad legacies of the prolonged use of quantitative easing to wash away the sins of the world is the difficulty among investors, businessmen, and labor alike to think of business cycles as anything other than “V-shaped” affairs....
Read MoreFourth Quarter Rally Continues
November 22, 2022
U.S. equities fell last week (S&P 500 -0.6%) after the prior week’s strong gains. The equity decline was a function of hawkish Fed speak and further yield curve inversion. Best sectors were consumer staples (+1.7%) and healthcare (+1.0%);...
Read MoreA Rally in Stocks and Bonds - Is it Sustainable?
November 15, 2022
U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +5.9%) more than erasing the prior week’s declines. A major factor in the upside was an outsized Thursday rally in the wake of a softer-than-expected report for October CPI....
Read MoreEarnings Growth Continues To Roll Over
November 9, 2022
With earnings season more than 80% complete, EPS growth is expected to be 4.3% which is just below expectations at the beginning of the reporting season. On sector basis the data was mixed with 7 of the 11 sectors exceeding initial growth estimates...
Read MoreReprieve In Bonds Allow Stocks To Rise
November 2, 2022
Equities were higher for the second straight week (S&P 500 +4.0%). Despite multiple megacap earnings disappointments, the market remained resilient. The market is embracing the idea that the Fed could soon begin to slow the pace of tightening....
Read MoreQ3 Earnings Reports Coming in Better than Feared
October 25, 2022
Stocks rose last week (S&P 500 +4.7%) after falling to a 2.5 year low the week before. The increase was attributable to technical and sentiment reasons, but also Q3 earnings reports coming in less bad than feared....
Read MoreAS Q.E. moves to Q.T., Markets Resume Control
October 18, 2022
The nearly 14 years of financial repression that allowed politicians to escape the economic consequences of their actions without fear of retribution from the frontier justice of free markets appears to be ending. The ever-...
Read MoreThe Roller Coaster Ride In Both Directions Continues
October 12, 2022
Equities closed higher (S&P 500 +1.6%) in a roller-coaster week, snapping a three-week losing streak. Stocks bounced early in the week on oversold conditions and negative sentiment. There was also a renewed pickup in policy pivot hopes....
Read MoreCentral Banks Seem Determined To Slay Inflation (and Likely Cause a Recession)
October 4, 2022
Stocks and bonds both declined for the third consecutive quarter, the longest streak in almost 50 years. The S&P 500 fell 5.3%, ten-year Treasury yields rose 85bps and two-year yields rose 130bps resulting in the most inverted yield curve in...
Read MoreWeekend Reading
October 3, 2022
Stocks And Bonds On Pace For 3rd Consecutive Negative Quarter Of the 187 quarters since 1976, there has never been a period that has seen negative quarterly returns for both stocks and bonds three quarters in a row....
Read MoreWe are in a Bear Market and have invested appropriately for our clients
September 28, 2022
We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede. At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 666....
Read MoreMIDTERMS & MARKETS
September 20, 2022
Midterm election years have historically been the most volatile year for stocks in the four-year presidential cycle. The average intra-year decline for the S&P 500 in a midterm election year is 19 percent, much higher than the 12-...
Read MoreU.S. CORE INFLATION IS STILL A PROBLEM … HAWKISH FED JUSTIFIED
September 15, 2022
Numbers do not lie, and the inflation numbers for August were released this morning. Today’s Inflation (CPI) numbers show Inflation in August went up from the previous month. The market is selling off today because the bond market is adjusting to...
Read MoreCrosscurrents in Both Directions Continue to Lead to Sideways Chop
September 15, 2022
U.S. equities rallied this week (S&P 500 +3.7%) to break three-straight weekly declines. The gains were driven by factors including oversold conditions, some more traction in the peak-inflation narrative, and firmer labor market data....
Read MoreCorporate Earnings still look strong in 2023
September 7, 2022
2023 Earnings Decline Paused For Now After falling roughly $9 during the 2Q reporting season, the 2023 earnings estimate has stabilized at approximately $243.50, with 2023 earnings growth expected to be about 8%. However,...
Read MoreBiden's Student Loan Forgiveness Contributes to Market Selloff
August 31, 2022
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points last Friday, caused apparently by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s attempt to use a brief speech to channel the ghost of Paul Volcker. Obviously, this was part of the market’s worries,...
Read MoreVolatile Churn and Choppiness to Persist
August 30, 2022
Equities were sharply lower last week with the S&P -4.0%, its worst week in ten. Friday’s Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was the catalyst for the significant Friday decline as he signaled that the Fed is willing to risk recession to...
Read MoreWeekend Reading: Investors Have Been Conditioned to Think in V-Shaped Terms
August 29, 2022
Consistent with the frenetic pace of modern life, a technology-inspired need to achieve instant gratification, and virtually endless amounts of free money, it is difficult for all of us as investors to have the patience to allow economic...
Read MoreIs The Rally Running Out Of Steam?
August 23, 2022
Equities declined last week (S&P 500 -1.2%) with the bulk of the decline coming toward the end of the week. The decline came after four straight weeks of gain. Downside occurred due to Fed commentary indicating determination to fight inflation...
Read MoreSecond Quarter Earnings Stronger Than Expected But 2023 EPS Estimates Falling
August 16, 2022
Second Quarter Earnings Better Than Expected In Aggregate… With over 90% of companies reporting earnings for the second quarter, aggregate EPS growth of 9.7% for the S&P 500 is well above the original estimates of 5.6%....
Read MoreSurprise Jobs Report muddies the waters for the Fed
August 9, 2022
Stocks were mixed last week (S&P 500 +0.4%). The most notable event for the week was the hot jobs report on Friday as the Fed continued to push back talk of a Fed pivot post the turn of the year. Best sectors were technology (+2.0%),...
Read MoreQ2 Earnings better than expected
August 2, 2022
Stocks rallied again last week (S&P 500 +4.3%) for the third week in the past four helped by continued better than feared earnings (especially big technology companies), declines in bond yields, and valuation improvement....
Read MoreWe are technically in a recession...
July 29, 2022
What do you do when you are technically in a recession and inflation is running out of control??? Raise taxes and increase spending on climate change of course! The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came out at -...
Read MorePIVOTAL WEEK FOR MARKETS ON TAP
July 25, 2022
Naturally, during times of market stress, every week seems pivotal. Still, the next five days will be chock-a-block with earnings, economic releases, and economic events that are likely to set the tone for the market and a fair amount of political...
Read MoreYield Curve firmly inverted….Now what??
July 19, 2022
The Treasury yield curve flattened significantly over the course of the week as short-term yields rose and long-term yields dropped while inflation continued to run hotter than expected....
Read MoreANOTHER BIG UPSIDE SURGE IN U.S. INFLATION
July 13, 2022
CPI again surged +0.7% m/m (!) and 5.9% y/y. Shelter rose +0.6% m/m. Both core and headline CPI m/m surprised to the upside again this month, indicating inflation has broadened. Bottom line: U.S. inflation is still too high,...
Read MoreDividend Payers Continue to Outperform
July 13, 2022
In January 2022 we rebalanced our portfolios to reduce exposure to companies that had extended multiples and were paying little or no dividends. These equities are considered long-duration equities because they will grow into their stock pricing...
Read MoreQ2 Earnings Season Starts this week….What to expect
July 12, 2022
Watching For 2023 Downward Guidance During 2Q Reporting Season The second quarter earnings season is set to begin this week and while earnings are expected to be up about 6%, the 2Q story is about energy holding up the aggregate data....
Read MoreWeekend Reading
July 11, 2022
Talk of a Recession is increasing and the yield curve is inverted again. These are usually sure signs that a recession is on the horizon. As with many things these days, the definition of a Recession is ever changing. In the past,...
Read MoreEconomy Still Slowing and Odds Increase that we are already in a Recession
July 5, 2022
There is continued evidence of a cyclical slowdown. China has already taken a large hit due to local policy decisions. Europe is dealing with the impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. The U.S....
Read MoreA Difficult First Half For All Investors…We are likely already in Recession
July 5, 2022
Investors are proceeding into the second half of 2022 with caution after the worst first six months to a year in decades. Risk-off sentiment was seen in most areas of the market, fueled by soaring inflation and the Fed's aggressive monetary policy...
Read MoreUpdate on Inflation and Money Supply
June 29, 2022
We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up. The Fed only releases this data on a monthly basis. They used to release it weekly,...
Read MoreSlowing Economy for Sure - Will It Be a Soft Landing or a Recession?
June 28, 2022
Stocks advanced sharply last week (S&P 500 +6.5%), largely reversing the decline of the prior week. The rally stemmed from a technically oversold condition and some evidence that inflation might be peaking....
Read MoreFed’s Bullard says U.S. economy should continue to grow in coming quarters
June 22, 2022
Fear that U.S. has to experience a severe recession to get inflation under control is the ‘wrong lesson’ of history, the St. Louis Fed president says St. Louis Fed President James Bullard spoke in Barcelona. The U.S....
Read MoreBad U.S. Energy Policy Leading Inflation Higher
June 22, 2022
US Energy Policy Failure It has been four months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The White House’s failure to recognize that the Russian attack signified a need to focus on energy security over climate change has kept the price of energy...
Read MoreFED AIMING FOR RESTRICTIVE POLICY THIS YEAR
June 16, 2022
The FOMC raised the fed funds rate +75bp today, taking an aggressive step given the recent inflation & inflation expectations data. The Fed wants a restrictive policy by the end of the year (ie,...
Read MoreAll Eyes on the Federal Reserve Today
June 16, 2022
All eyes will be on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting today when it announces how much it's going to raise short-term rates, its new projections for the economy and short-term rates for the next few years,...
Read More10 THINGS TO CONSIDER AFTER FRIDAY'S SELL-OFF
June 14, 2022
As they say, there are two types of economists – those who don’t know and those who don’t know, they don’t know. We’re making educated guesses just like everyone else. But here are some impressions we think are worth considering after...
Read MoreNo hurricane yet, but still too much money floating around
June 9, 2022
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon caused a stir lately when he talked about a "hurricane" hitting the US economy. We think he may eventually be right, but is way too early. The employment report for May confirmed that the US economy continues to...
Read MoreA Welcome Pause that Refreshes
June 1, 2022
Stocks were sharply higher (S&P 500 +6.6%), breaking the multi-week downward trend. As we covered in recent weeks, stocks rallied on a large oversold condition and extremely negative sentiment....
Read MoreEarnings Concerns Keep Market Heavy, but a Rally Likely Soon
May 24, 2022
U.S. equities fell (-3.0% for the S&P 500) for the seventh straight week. The DJIA fell for the eighth week in a row, the longest losing streak since 1923. The S&P 500 briefly dipped into 20+% decline territory,...
Read MoreQ1 Earnings update…Time For An Oversold Stock And Bond Rally?
May 18, 2022
U.S. equities were lower last week (S&P 500 -2.4%) for the sixth straight week (the longest stretch in over ten years). During the midweek selloff, the S&P 500 hit the lowest point since March 2021 and the NASDAQ since November 2020....
Read MoreFed Struggles to Thread the Needle
May 10, 2022
Equities fell last week with the S&P 500 down 0.2%, masking a huge rally on Wednesday and a big decline on Thursday. This was the fifth straight week of equity market decline. Equities fell due to headwinds from a continued back-up in yields (10-...
Read MoreANSWERS TO OUR FREQUENTLY ASKED CLIENT QUESTIONS
May 9, 2022
The vast majority of Strategas’s published research reports can trace their origins to questions from clients we receive when they are on the road. What follows are some simple answers to the questions they are currently getting most frequently....
Read MoreFed raised Rates .50bps as expected
May 5, 2022
"Transitory" is out, "expeditious" is in. As most investors expected, the Fed raised short-term interest rates by half a percentage point (50 basis points) earlier today, leaving the range for the federal funds rate at 0.75 – 1.00%....
Read MoreFed Meeting this week should bring us a .50bp rate hike that is already priced into the market
May 3, 2022
Equities were sharply lower last week (S&P 500 -3.3%) as stocks made their lowest close of the year. The week was capped off by a big Friday selloff. Some suggest risks are skewed toward a near-term rally given factors,...
Read MoreQ2 Earnings are outpacing expectations but Quantitative Tightening (QT) is starting
April 26, 2022
U.S. equities were down last week, with the S&P 500 falling 2.7%. The week’s slide was broadly attributed to increasingly hawkish central bank commentary by the Fed and the ECB. Q1 earnings so far are outpacing expectations....
Read MoreInteresting Article in the Wall Street Journal
April 21, 2022
Corporate Tax Reform Worked Revenue is surging, exceeding what CBO and critics predicted By The WSJ Editorial Board April 19, 2022 Democrats are still looking to raise $1.6 trillion in new taxes this year,...
Read MoreMaterials, Energy and Industrials are still the best performing sectors of the market
April 19, 2022
U.S. equities were lower last week, with the S&P 500 down 2.1%. (Small-cap stocks were modestly higher.) Some bullish talking points didn’t get much market traction, including peak inflation, better supply chain trends,...
Read MoreHousing: Heartburn, Not a Heart Attack
April 13, 2022
When interest rates go up, many analysts start to worry about recessions. That's not wrong to do, after all Federal Reserve rate cycles are important. Lately, the market has settled on expectations for a total of about 2.25% or more of interest...
Read MoreWe Are All Keynesians Now
April 6, 2022
The S&P suffered its first quarterly decline since the depths of the pandemic in Q1 of 2020 (-5.0%). Growth (-8.6%) meaningfully lagged value (-0.6%). The biggest development in Q1 was the dramatic repricing of the Fed rate hike path and...
Read MoreThe Energy and Basic Materials sectors have become legitimately good investments
March 29, 2022
Stocks finished higher again last week (S&P 500 +1.8%). The biggest story discussed was the hawkish Fed policy shift (lots of discussion around 50bp Fed hikes), pushing bonds lower and stocks higher. Earnings discussions were generally upbeat....
Read MoreBest week since November '20... does it change anything?
March 22, 2022
Rumors of War Negotiations, Lower Oil Prices, and Predictable Fed Lift Stocks U.S. stocks had their best week since November 2020, with the S&P 500 +6.2%. Oil fell for the second week in a row. The themes cited included oversold conditions,...
Read MoreHOW THE END OF FREE MONEY & GLOBALIZATION ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO HIGHER INFLATION
March 21, 2022
For econometricians and other expensive experts, it remained a mystery why a quintupling of the assets on the Fed's balance sheet between 2008 and 2014 led to ever greater securities prices and no appreciable increase in the prices of goods and...
Read MoreThe Federal reserve raised interest rates .25bps today with more to come...
March 17, 2022
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates by one quarter of a percentage point (25 basis points) earlier today, the first rate hike since the end of 2018. Even more important,...
Read MoreInterest Rate increase coming this week…
March 16, 2022
Higher interest rates plus higher commodity prices (energy + metals + food) indicate that we are likely headed for a period of below-trend economic growth. Central banks seem intent on moving to a more neutral policy setting (against the backdrop...
Read MoreOil Prices continue to climb with rate hikes coming soon… but still no real sign of Recession
March 8, 2022
Price Of Oil Most Stretched Since 1990 It’s no secret that the price of oil has skyrocketed over the last week and now stands at roughly 60% above its 200-day moving average. This is the most stretched it has been since the 1990 oil price shock...
Read MoreVolatility Picks up but Markets were higher last week as war breaks out in Ukraine
February 28, 2022
Volatility Picks Up but Markets were higher last week as war breaks out in Ukraine U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +0.8%) thanks to big rallies on Thursday and Friday after big losses earlier in the week resulting from Russia’s...
Read MoreRUSSIA invades Ukraine…Now What…
February 28, 2022
ANSWERS TO OUR FREQUENTLY ASKED CLIENT QUESTIONS ABOUT RUSSIA 1. With inflation running hot, the Fed likely to tighten, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leading to a spike in the price of oil,...
Read MoreRUSSIA CONFLICT HASN’T CHANGED THE MACRO MESSAGE
February 24, 2022
It’s always tempting to prognosticate how a headline event – geopolitical conflict, Fed action, etc. – may change the complexion of the market, but it’s been our experience that exogenous inputs do more to reinforce trends already in place...
Read MoreThe Push and Pull of the current Market and still earnings are good
February 15, 2022
After posting back-to-back weekly gains following the big January sell-off, equities were lower last week (S&P -1.8%). Value and small-cap beat growth and large-cap. Oil was higher for an eighth-straight week....
Read MoreA Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Inflation, and Supply Chain Issues Spook the Market
February 14, 2022
There were plenty of concerns to go around as we finished out the week including: The imminent risk of war between Russia and Ukraine continues to build. The NY Times on February 11th reported US officials have picked up intelligence suggesting...
Read MoreInflation hitting where it hurts in food and energy
February 9, 2022
Inflation is starting to be noticed by everyone everywhere. We will not discuss the price of fuel which we expect will be north of $5.00 a gallon in California in the next few weeks. However,...
Read MoreQ4 earnings season continued to prove mediocre
February 1, 2022
U.S. equities finished last week mostly higher (S&P 500 +0.8%), coming off intraweek lows and rallying strongly on Friday. The S&P 500 moved into double-digit percentage loss territory several times before the end of the week rally....
Read MoreTIGHTER FISCAL & MONETARY POLICY IN A MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR, WHICH TENDS TO BE MORE VOLATILE
January 26, 2022
As we have mentioned over the last few months, we expect market volatility to increase in 2022. There are a number of reasons for our concern such as the long running bull market, real Inflation for the first time in more than 20 years and rising...
Read MoreWeek One Of Earnings Season Was Very Underwhelming and we have a Russia Problem…
January 25, 2022
The first quarter of 2022 is slowing. There’s a clear shock to demand (eg, closures for schools, flights, cruises, etc). U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 286,000 in the Jan 15th week, with existing home sales dipping -4.6% m/m in Dec. However,...
Read MoreQUANTITIVE TIGHTENING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR ASSET PRICES AND INFLATION
January 24, 2022
Increased Market volatility absolutely has to do with inflation and all eyes are looking on how the Fed can catch up from recent mistakes. It has been claimed that the first casualty in any war is the truth. In the fullness of time,...
Read More4Q Earnings start to roll out and things could be choppy
January 19, 2022
4Q Earnings Season Could Be Choppy If Friday was any indication of how the earnings season will pan out, it could be a choppy one for investors. Earnings growth is largely expected to be robust along with sales growth. However,...
Read MoreMarket rotation, Leadership shift and Q4 Earnings start the year…
January 11, 2022
In our Monday reports, we always strive to first highlight what is most important for clients, but frankly, we debated what exactly that should be this morning. There was a long list of contenders… the breakout in global yields,...
Read MoreGreat 2021 and what we expect for 2022
January 5, 2022
S&P 500 Finishes 2021 Up 28.7% With the S&P 500 finishing the year up 28.7% on a total return basis, 2021 ranked as the 21st best year for the index since 1926. It was also the 36th time that the total return was greater than 20%....
Read MoreNews on Build Back Better and Omicron increases market volatility
December 21, 2021
Sunday morning Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he will not support President Biden’s Build Back Better spending and tax package as is currently written. This is a major event that has broad investment implications from taxes on high-net-...
Read MoreYear-end Charitable Gifting
December 16, 2021
A Reminder on Charitable Gifting As the end of the year and the holiday season approaches, we will all see an uptick in the number of charitable solicitations arriving in our mailboxes and by email....
Read MoreHas the Fed had its foot on the gas pedal too long? Inflation looks to be getting stickier.
December 14, 2021
Real interest rates appear too low for an economy growing solidly, with inflation accelerating. Numerous data series are supporting the idea that the U.S. is in the neighborhood of full employment, but with (still) emergency monetary policy. U.S....
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