Economic Expertise

Stocks Turn Sloppy and Are Likely to Continue to Consolidate/Correct

April 23, 2024

Stocks were on a roller coaster most of the week (S&P 500 -3.1%, Dow Jones +0% and NASDAQ -5.5%). Dominating the discussion were the geopolitical volatility in the Middle East and hawkish Fed rate conversation....

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Leadership Key for Market Call

April 16, 2024

The breakout in rates, combined with the bid to USD, strength from Oil, and the persistence from Gold, all conspired as motivation to tactically raise our guard over recent weeks....

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Is the Fed Tight, Or Not?

April 9, 2024

In the waning seconds of one of the most watched women’s college basketball games ever, a foul was called. The University of Connecticut was playing the University of Iowa in the semi-finals of the women’s NCAA championship tournament....

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No Recession So Far

April 2, 2024

Why has recession not happened? After all, the Fed raised rates the most and fastest in modern history, the yield curve inverted, and money growth turned negative. That severely curtailed bank lending, as it normally does....

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Double-Digit Earnings Growth and Multiple Fed Rate Cuts Seem Incompatible

March 27, 2024

​​​​​​Equities posted their best weekly performance this year (S&P 500 +2.31%). The rally was sparked by dovish takeaways from last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting....

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Becoming More Concerned

March 19, 2024

Stocks fell last week (S&P 500 -0.1%) and bonds fell (the 10-year yield was up more than 20 bp) due primarily to a higher-than-expected CPI. Best sectors were energy (+3.8%) and materials (+1.6%); worst sectors were real estate (-...

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No Rate Cuts for You!!!

March 6, 2024

Why is the economy so strong? This seems to defy the normal and needed market cycles. The market came into 2023 expecting a recession, but one was nowhere to be found. The market went into 2024 expecting six Fed rate cuts....

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Will 2024 Be Like 1995, Or 1967?

February 27, 2024

We’ve had 3 soft landings -- 1967, 1985, & 1995 -- and many investors believe 2024 will be added to that list. In today’s Narrative, we compare this cycle to 1995 and 1967, drawing some cautionary conclusions....

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January Stagflation

February 21, 2024

A key economic mistake people make is thinking growth leads to inflation. One reason they do that is because inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When money is too easy, first growth rises,...

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Hard Landing → Soft Landing → No Landing → Taking Off?

February 13, 2024

Stocks advanced again last week (S&P 500+1.4%) as the S&P 500 closed above 5,000 for the first time and small stocks beat big ones for the fifth time in the past seven weeks. Earnings exceeded expectations and treasury yields increased....

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Latest Comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman

February 6, 2024

Most all his comments are speculative (Like Transitory Inflation was at the time), except the one on our national debt.   Is anyone in DC listening? Coming off a sizzling jobs report, which showed non-...

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The Power of Compounding and Reading the Tea Leaves

January 30, 2024

 Albert Einstein once said the most powerful force in the universe is compounding. Compounding can be easily explained, but most people do not understand It and why it matters. The basis of compounding is that as forces become larger,...

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Slower Growth in Q4, But No Recession

January 24, 2024

The economy slowed substantially in the last quarter of 2023 from the rapid pace of the third quarter, but, as we explain below, still expanded at a moderate rate. Some will take this week’s Real GDP report to confirm their prior view the...

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Budgets and Governing

January 17, 2024

The leaders of the House and Senate have come up with a new budget deal, and many people aren’t happy. It still needs passing by January 19th, or else the government, evidently, may shutdown. We doubt that this will happen,...

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Goldilocks Remains a Fairytale

January 9, 2024

Each year we like to check out our friend Bob Doll's annual predictions. He is right more than wrong, but last year's markets left Bob's predictions with an unusually mixed bag. Let’s see what Bob thinks is in store for 2024: The main focal...

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‘Everyone Got Burned’: Wall Street Missed the Great Stock Rally of 2023

January 3, 2024

Across Wall Street, on equities desks and bond desks, at giant firms and niche outfits, the mood was glum. It was the end of 2022 and everyone, it seemed, was game planning for the recession they were convinced was coming. Over at Morgan Stanley,...

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Summary of Bob's 10 Predictions for 2023

December 20, 2023

2023 certainly was a challenging year for investors. Multiple expansion despite flattish earnings confounded most investors even as a much-anticipated recession did not materialize. Investors enjoyed falling long-...

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Fed Declares Mission Accomplished

December 14, 2023

The Federal Reserve declared victory today, projecting a soft landing as its base case in the years ahead, with more cuts in short-term rates, and with inflation gradually getting back to its 2.0% goal without a recession. Unfortunately,...

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For All The Talk Of Rate Cuts, Little Talk Of Halting Balance Sheet Runoff

December 12, 2023

Lately, there has been much discussion about how soon the Fed will have to cut rates as many believe they are too restrictive. While we are cautious about the ultimate message rates have for equities,...

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Markets are Rallying into Year's End, but is the Rally Warranted?

December 5, 2023

The S&P 500 was up (+0.8%) for the fifth week in a row. Small cap stocks again powered higher (Russell 2000 +0.1%). Treasuries had a strong week with the ten-year yield falling 25 basis points....

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Cybersecurity Hints & Tips: Holiday and Seasonal Scams

December 4, 2023

With the ever-growing popularity of online shopping and online communications, you should always have your guard up in the cyberworld. Criminals will use any situation to their advantage–especially when it comes to annual holidays....

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Annual Charitable Giving this Holiday Season

December 4, 2023

Don’t forget to give to Charity this Holiday Season! As the end of the year and the holiday season approaches, we will all see an uptick in charitable solicitations arriving in our mailboxes and by email....

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Short Essay that Summarizes Current Economic and Investment Outlook

November 28, 2023

In this short essay, we highlight some of the most important drivers for the economic and investment outlook. The essay is not exhaustive on any subject, nor does it touch on the long list of subjects impacting the investment environment....

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Has the Santa Clause Rally Already Started?

November 21, 2023

Stocks advanced for a third week in a row (S&P 500 +2.2%). Small stocks (Russell 2000) were up 5.45%. Disinflation optimism and weaker labor data supported peak Fed and soft-landing narratives....

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Magnificent 7 Continues to Dominate Market & Earnings Past and Present

November 14, 2023

Several weeks ago, we decided to reconstruct the S&P 500 by excluding the Magnificent 7 stocks from the sectors in which they normally reside and by creating a new separate sector for them....

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The Pause (In the Downtrend) That Refreshes

November 9, 2023

After reaching correction territory on Monday, stocks advanced each day with the S&P 500 (+5.9%) posting its best week in a year. Small stocks (Russell 2000 +7.6%) had their best week in two and a half years. Ten-...

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Fed Pause... For Now

November 2, 2023

The Fed kept rates unchanged at today’s meeting, but whether they are done with rate hikes or simply at a pause is yet to be determined. Today’s Fed statement itself was mostly a copy/paste of September,...

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Stocks Break Below the Recent Trading Range: Stocks and Bonds are Both Oversold

October 30, 2023

Equities were lower again last week as the S&P 500 (-2.5%) fell for the second straight week and finished the week at the lowest levels since April. NASDAQ is now 12% below the recent July peak. Treasuries yields fell on the week,...

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Interesting List of Lists from our Research Provider

October 24, 2023

WHY WE BELIEVE LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES ARE RISING Reversion to the Mean: typical spread between 10-year & inflation is 200 bps Greater Sense Inflation is Structural: Slowing Globalization, Deficit Spending,...

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Market Ramifications from the Middle East War

October 18, 2023

This brief note is not meant to cover all the events of recent days or exhaust the potential economic and market implications of the war in the Middle East. Our goal is to provide you insight into our view of the potential impacts of these events...

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Growing Deficits Will Weigh on Growth

October 17, 2023

At the end of October, we will get our first look at real GDP growth for the third quarter, and it looks like it was solid. We’ll have a more exact estimate a week from now– after this week’s reports on retail sales, industrial production,...

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Crisis Management Government Leads to No Good

October 10, 2023

Back in 2008, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson, using fear of financial collapse, convinced President Bush and Congress to 1) pass a $700 billion bailout of banks (called TARP) and 2) allow the Federal Reserve to pay banks interest on reserves at the...

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Turmoil in Washington "A House Without a Rudder"

October 4, 2023

Yesterday House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was voted down as House Majority leader by just a few members of his own party and most all members of the opposing party. There are no more Norms in Washington but does the end justify the means....

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October Weakness Before the Year-End Run?

October 3, 2023

While September had been a bit sloppy, will further weakness in October weigh on investor sentiment before the seasonally strong period begins? As shown by the S&P 500 index seasonality chart below,...

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Don't Fall for the Q3 Head-Fake

September 26, 2023

We have plenty of data reports to go, but, so far, the third quarter is shaping up to be a strong one for the US economy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is tracking a Real GDP growth rate of 4.9% for Q3,...

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Higher Rates & a Shutdown on the Menu

September 19, 2023

The University of Colorado Buffaloes are undefeated and suck up a lot of oxygen in the college football world. After just three games as the new head coach, Deion Sanders was interviewed by 60 Minutes. For now,...

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Bonds Hold the Key to the Direction of Stocks in the Near Term

September 12, 2023

Stocks fell last week (S&P 500 -1.3%) as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell below their 50-day moving averages. The market’s mood was primarily defensive with investors focused on the renewed back up in interest rates, dollar strength,...

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Fiscal Madness

September 6, 2023

Back in the 1980s, President Reagan took enormous political heat (Sam Donaldson comes to mind) for being fiscally irresponsible. His offense? Presiding over a budget deficit that peaked at 5.9% of GDP in Fiscal Year 1983. But at least Reagan had...

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A recession is coming… A RECESSION IS COMING…

August 29, 2023

Since the beginning of 2022, the media has regularly warned a recession is coming. As we suggested previously, if a recession did occur, it would be the most well forecasted recession ever on record. Something else has indeed happened....

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Schwab Market Perspective: On the Line

August 22, 2023

Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call.   We've believed all year that the economy has been undergoing a series of "rolling recessions" affecting various industries and sectors....

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P/E's Have Peaked - Now It's Up to Earnings

August 15, 2023

Stocks fell again last week (S&P 500 -0.3%) with big tech hit hardest. Inflation remains the primary concern despite a good CPI report on Wednesday – PPI report on Friday was less good....

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Second Quarter Earnings Season Better than Expected

August 8, 2023

2Q Earnings Season 84% Complete With the majority of earnings season complete, the overall picture is one of better-than-expected earnings and sales. Earnings growth for the quarter is expected to decline -...

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Fed Raised Rates Again

July 27, 2023

Anyone hoping for excitement from today’s Fed statement was severely disappointed. As expected, the federal funds rate was lifted 25 basis points (bps) from a range of 5.25 to 5.50%. With the exception of the rate hike and slight wording changes...

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Still Growing

July 25, 2023

No one should be popping champagne when they see Thursday’s GDP report. The good news is that it won’t be negative. The bad news is that even if it hits our estimate of 2.1% this is a far cry from the robust growth of the economic expansions in...

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Better Inflation News, But...

July 18, 2023

U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +2.4%) more than erasing the prior week’s declines. The small-cap R2000 increased 3.6%. The main focus for the week was the June CPI report,...

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Market Gains this Year Entirely Drive by Multiple Expansion

July 11, 2023

Expectations for 2024 S&P 500 operating earnings have fallen from $253 at the start of the year to $246 today. While this is only a modest decline, it means that the S&P 500’s entire +14.6% price gain year-to-...

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The High Wire Act Continues

June 27, 2023

U.S. equities fell last week (S&P 500 -1.4%) as the S&P 500 broke a five-week streak and the NASDAQ an eight-week streak of gains. Higher-for-longer Fed policy remains a key piece of the bearish narrative....

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Is the Recession Threat Dead?

June 21, 2023

Lately, it’s been easy to see the optimism. As of the Friday close, the S&P 500 is up 15% so far this year (not including dividends) and up 23% (again, without dividends) versus the lowest bear-...

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The Fed is All Mixed Up

June 15, 2023

If the Federal Reserve were paying close attention to the money supply, it would know that monetary policy is now tight. Through April, the narrow M1 measure of money has fallen for thirteen straight months....

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Market Returns and Full Employment

June 13, 2023

Historically, the movement in stock prices has had a stronger relationship with inflation and long-term interest rates than it has with the unemployment rate. Still, we are left with a simple question – can a new and durable economic cycle and...

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The Beat (Narrower and Narrower) Goes On!

May 31, 2023

U.S. equities were mixed last week, with the S&P 500 slightly higher (+0.3%) though NASDAQ posted its second straight week up at least 2.5%, largely driven by AI optimism. Analysts have continued to warn of narrow breadth....

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Risk / Reward Not Favorable

May 23, 2023

Stocks were higher last week (S&P 500 +1.6%), lead once again by the tech-heavy NASDAQ (+3.0%). YTD NASDAQ is +20.9%, S&P 500 +9.7% and DJIA +0.8%. The S&P 500 broke above 4200 for the first time since last August....

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Answers to Strategas Research's Frequently Asked Client Questions

May 16, 2023

What follows are some simple answers to the questions Strategas research is receiving most frequently from their clients these days. We are happy to hop on a call to discuss them in greater detail should you have further questions about our...

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Weekend Reading - Bank Problems Aren't Over, But It's Not 2008

May 15, 2023

Yes, we have banking problems. No, this is not 2008. It’s much more like the 1970s Savings & Loan problems. In other words, we do not have credit problems today, we have duration (asset-liability) problems....

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2023 Has Been Full of Surprises but Fundamentals Should Prevail

May 9, 2023

I came across an interesting article that discusses the disjointed market we have seen thus far in 2023. We believe fundamentals will drive this market as we progress through the year and believe our portfolios are positioned to reduce volatility...

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All Eyes on the Fed this Week

May 2, 2023

For nine of the last fifteen years, few people thought about the Fed. Sure, we discussed QT and QE, but the Federal Reserve held interest rates at zero year after year. In 2017 and 2018, they lifted rates, and it was all anyone talked about....

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New Division Announcement | Fortem Insurance

May 1, 2023

We would like to announce exciting news. For several years, our clients have been asking to have us deliver additional added services to continue with the Ultimate Client Experience they are accustomed to....

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Q1 2023 Earnings Update

April 25, 2023

1Q Earnings Marginally Ahead Of Initial Estimates After the second week of earnings reports, growth rates continue to improve marginally compared to initial estimates and now are expected to decline -4.7%, a slight improvement from last week’s -...

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“Shareholder's Equity” Declines to All-Time Low Profits Growth/Margins Now a Liability

April 18, 2023

In an effort to be dispassionate about our market forecast, we have categorized 16 basic building blocks of market strength as either assets or liabilities on a regular basis since 2002....

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The U.S. Economy Does Not Appear to Be in Recession Now but Seems to Be Heading That Way...

April 11, 2023

Some cracks are appearing in the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims with revisions were 228,000 last week. The ISM mfg & svc indices both fell notably in March. The Fed’s H.8 release showed bank loans declining at the end of March....

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Are We in the Eye of a Hurricane?

April 4, 2023

U.S. equities were higher for the third week in a row (S&P 500 +3.5%). Headlines were sparse, with lower volatility around banks. Flows to money market accounts eased from the prior two weeks....

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The Fed Waffles

March 29, 2023

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%....

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Regional Banks are on Shaky Ground. Are the Big Banks Next?

March 27, 2023

Has the Bank Crisis Really Been Solved? After conversing with our Chief Economist Don Rissmiller yesterday about the status of the banking system, the question came up about whether the risk of deposit flight still remains....

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The Banking Crisis

March 15, 2023

Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments   Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760)  ...

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SIVB Bank Update

March 14, 2023

As we are sure you have seen, the FDIC stepped in to take over Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) over the weekend. First and foremost, we want to assure that your assets at Charles Schwab are safe and secure. To begin,...

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Inflation Fighting, Recession Uncertainty, and Now, Credit Crunch Concerns

March 14, 2023

Equities had their worst week since September (S&P 500 -4.6%). All sectors were down with banks the biggest decliners due to the SIVB financial failure. Treasuries rallied across the curve, with two-year yields recording their largest two-...

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The Choppiness Continues

March 8, 2023

U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +1.9%) after three weeks of declines. Markets continued to reprice upward Fed rate expectations. Best sectors were materials (+4.0%), communication services (+3.3%) and industrials (+3.3%);...

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1st Annual Coachella Valley Giving Day

March 2, 2023

Dear Clients,   Today is the 1st Annual Coachella Valley Giving Day. CV Giving Day brings the region together as one community, raising money and awareness for local nonprofits in the Coachella Valley. Fortem Financial is a long-...

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Seven Things I Didn't Know At the Start of the Year

February 28, 2023

"There are two types of economists," said famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith, "those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know." This, along with movie producer William Goldman's assertion that "nobody knows anything" are two...

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2% Inflation? Very Unlikely

February 22, 2023

U.S. equities were mixed last week (S&P 500 -0.2%) with some early week strength surrendered in multiple risk-off sessions impacted by economic data and hawkish Fed commentary. Fed peak rate expectations moved higher on a stronger than expected...

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Office Hours in Observance of Presidents' Day

February 17, 2023

  In observance of Presidents' Day, the New York Stock Exchange and bond markets are closed on Monday, February 20, 2023. Our office will be closing at 1:00PM PST on Friday, February 17, 2023, and will reopen on Tuesday, February 21, 2023,...

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Some Caution is Warranted

February 13, 2023

U.S. equities closed lower last week as the S&P 500 (-1.1%) fell for the first time in three weeks and Nasdaq (-2.4%) in six weeks. WTI crude was up 8.6%, the best week since early October....

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Staying Cautious but It's Getting Tougher

February 7, 2023

We first became cautious on future market returns last March and have remained so ever since. Despite some countertrend rallies after the market peaked at 4,797 on January 3, 2022, we continue to believe that the inversion of the yield curve,...

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Fed Raises Interest Rates Again. Slowing, Not Stopping.

February 2, 2023

The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done. As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points (bp) today, slowing from the 50bp hike in December, and the 75bp hikes at the four meetings before that....

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Inflation and Earnings Estimates Continue to Decline

January 31, 2023

U.S. equities finished higher last week (S&P 500 +2.5%), closing above the 4000 level for the first time since early December. The path of least resistance remains higher even though earnings season continued to undershoot expectations....

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Last Year's Worst Stocks Performing the Best So Far this Year

January 27, 2023

Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Global Investments   Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760)     Latest News   Market Recovery Hinges on Quick Drop in Inflation Rate Stocks and bonds have been buoyed by expectations...

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Markets Are Up for the Year But Will It Continue?

January 18, 2023

Stocks closed higher last week (S&P 500 +2.7%) at their highest level in a month. The main macro tailwinds include the decline in inflation (CPI) and improved consumer sentiment. Best sectors were consumer discretionary (+5.8%) and technology...

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IRS Gives Drenched Californians an Extra Month to File Tax Returns

January 16, 2023

The Internal Revenue Service offered a lifeboat of sorts Tuesday to California residents and businesses floundering in the atmospheric river: More time to pay their income taxes. The agency announced that taxpayers in any county covered by a...

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The Market is Treating Friday's Employment Report Like It's Goldilocks

January 10, 2023

Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead,...

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The Road Ahead for 2023

January 4, 2023

Is a U.S. recession or economic recovery in store for 2023?   Risk: With inflation peaking at 9.1% in June, a recession is now the No. 1 economic concern going into 2023. When businesses make less money due to lower consumer spending (triggered...

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Still Unprecedented

December 28, 2022

What a difference a year makes! One year ago the Federal Reserve was forecasting that real GDP would grow a strong 4.0% in 2022, that PCE prices would be up a relatively moderate 2.6%,...

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No gift giving to scammers this Holiday Season

December 23, 2022

Be Aware This Holiday Season. Many of us spend the holidays relaxing and sharing in goodwill with friends and family. But some bad actors use the holidays to take advantage of people’s generous spirits....

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Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2022 Revisited

December 21, 2022

We have been following one of our favorite portfolio managers for more than 20 years. Bob Doll was the chief investment officer and lead portfolio manager for Merrill Lynch asset management when we started in the business back in 1998....

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An Investor's Letter to Santa Clause - The Substance of Things Hoped For

December 20, 2022

Dear Santa, We were largely good investors this year, remembering always and everywhere one of the cardinal rules of investing – “Don’t fight the Fed” either when it is easing or most especially when it’s tightening....

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Interest Rates Are Going Higher Than Expected

December 16, 2022

The Fed downshifted to smaller rate hikes but isn’t close to done. In contrast to the 75 basis point rate hikes at each of the last four meetings, the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates by only 50 bps YESTERDAY, as expected. However,...

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Energy Reliability & Security to Remain a Major Investment Theme in 2023

December 13, 2022

In January 2020 President Biden entered office and declared he was going to change the energy policy in America at a record pace. We were going green baby and Biden was the man to take us there in record time....

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Annual Gifting

December 9, 2022

Below we have outlined a list of reminders as you consider your options for Annual Gifting.   Don't Forget to Give to Charity As the end of the year and the holiday season approach,...

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Economic Update

December 6, 2022

The U.S. economy does not appear to be in a recession right now. But risks continue to skew to the downside, in our opinion. We believe there’s a 75% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 2 years. The employment situation continues to show a...

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November 29, 2022

Among the sad legacies of the prolonged use of quantitative easing to wash away the sins of the world is the difficulty among investors, businessmen, and labor alike to think of business cycles as anything other than “V-shaped” affairs....

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Fourth Quarter Rally Continues

November 22, 2022

U.S. equities fell last week (S&P 500 -0.6%) after the prior week’s strong gains. The equity decline was a function of hawkish Fed speak and further yield curve inversion. Best sectors were consumer staples (+1.7%) and healthcare (+1.0%);...

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A Rally in Stocks and Bonds - Is it Sustainable?

November 15, 2022

U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +5.9%) more than erasing the prior week’s declines. A major factor in the upside was an outsized Thursday rally in the wake of a softer-than-expected report for October CPI....

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Earnings Growth Continues To Roll Over

November 9, 2022

With earnings season more than 80% complete, EPS growth is expected to be 4.3% which is just below expectations at the beginning of the reporting season. On sector basis the data was mixed with 7 of the 11 sectors exceeding initial growth estimates...

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Reprieve In Bonds Allow Stocks To Rise

November 2, 2022

Equities were higher for the second straight week (S&P 500 +4.0%). Despite multiple megacap earnings disappointments, the market remained resilient. The market is embracing the idea that the Fed could soon begin to slow the pace of tightening....

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Q3 Earnings Reports Coming in Better than Feared

October 25, 2022

Stocks rose last week (S&P 500 +4.7%) after falling to a 2.5 year low the week before. The increase was attributable to technical and sentiment reasons, but also Q3 earnings reports coming in less bad than feared....

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AS Q.E. moves to Q.T., Markets Resume Control

October 18, 2022

The nearly 14 years of financial repression that allowed politicians to escape the economic consequences of their actions without fear of retribution from the frontier justice of free markets appears to be ending. The ever-...

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The Roller Coaster Ride In Both Directions Continues

October 12, 2022

Equities closed higher (S&P 500 +1.6%) in a roller-coaster week, snapping a three-week losing streak. Stocks bounced early in the week on oversold conditions and negative sentiment. There was also a renewed pickup in policy pivot hopes....

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Central Banks Seem Determined To Slay Inflation (and Likely Cause a Recession)

October 4, 2022

Stocks and bonds both declined for the third consecutive quarter, the longest streak in almost 50 years. The S&P 500 fell 5.3%, ten-year Treasury yields rose 85bps and two-year yields rose 130bps resulting in the most inverted yield curve in...

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Weekend Reading

October 3, 2022

Stocks And Bonds On Pace For 3rd Consecutive Negative Quarter Of the 187 quarters since 1976, there has never been a period that has seen negative quarterly returns for both stocks and bonds three quarters in a row....

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We are in a Bear Market and have invested appropriately for our clients

September 28, 2022

We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede. At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 666....

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September 20, 2022

Midterm election years have historically been the most volatile year for stocks in the four-year presidential cycle. The average intra-year decline for the S&P 500 in a midterm election year is 19 percent, much higher than the 12-...

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