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Positive Data Despite Higher Rates from July U.S. Housing & Production Data Positive
August 17, 2023
- U.S. housing starts rose +3.9% m/m in July, with single-unit permits (a leading indicator) up +0.6%. Despite higher rates, there’s a bottom forming here.
- U.S. industrial production also rose +1.0% m/m in July, with mfg production up +0.5%. Vehicle assemblies popped +8.8% m/m (!).
- Bottom line: the U.S. consumer has momentum in 3Q (eg, solid retail sales) helped by a still-tight labor market. Other parts of the economy are showing more mixed readings. Housing, autos, and mfg are interest-rate-sensitive, and are showing the continued pressure of restrictive monetary policy (though they’ve seen some resilience recently). With this backdrop, q/q tracking estimates for 3Q real GDP in the U.S. are starting out strong.
Source: Don Rissmiller, Strategas
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First Time Homebuyers
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